The one-sided explanations of a multifactorial coronavirus disease.

Short-term interventions to suppress COVID-19 completely dominate the public, political and even the professional discussion on what explains observed differences in mortality and morbidity across countries. This leads to an exaggerated view of what such measures can accomplish. Factors such as housing and social conditions as well as travel patterns are equally important but neglected aspects of the COVID-19 development. A multifactorial disease needs a multivariate analytical approach.

Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic will increase unemployment and lead to many premature deaths.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic have led to economic recession and higher unemployment, which will increase mortality and decrease quality of life. The aim of this article is to estimate the consequences on mortality and life expectancy of increased unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic in Sweden and other countries. METHODS: Based on recent increases and expected future unemployment rates due to the coronavirus pandemic, results from a systematic review and data from vital statistics in Sweden, the number of premature deaths due to unemployment in Sweden have been estimated. RESULTS: Based on our assumptions, the calculations show that if the number of unemployed persons in Sweden increases by 100,000, one may expect some 1800 more premature deaths during the following 9 years. If the duration of the recession is limited to 4 years, excess deaths due to unemployment may be around 800. On average, the unemployed will lose 2 years of their remaining life expectancy. In many other countries unemployment rates have or are estimated to rise more than in Sweden, sometimes two- or threefold, suggesting hundreds of thousands of excess deaths due to unemployment. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to suppress the coronavirus pandemic include the shut-down of economic activities and lead to increased all-cause mortality. These public health effects must be considered in the decision-making process and should be added to overall estimates of the effects of the pandemic on public health.

GRADE guidelines: 21 part 1. Study design, risk of bias, and indirectness in rating the certainty across a body of evidence for test accuracy.

OBJECTIVES: This article provides updated GRADE guidance about how authors of systematic reviews and health technology assessments and guideline developers can assess the results and the certainty of evidence (also known as quality of the evidence or confidence in the estimates) of a body of evidence addressing test accuracy (TA). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We present an overview of the GRADE approach and guidance for rating certainty in TA in clinical and public health and review the presentation of results of a body of evidence regarding tests. Part 1 of the two parts in this 21st guidance article about how to apply GRADE focuses on understanding study design issues in test accuracy, provide an overview of the domains, and describe risk of bias and indirectness specifically. RESULTS: Supplemented by practical examples, we describe how raters of the evidence using GRADE can evaluate study designs focusing on tests and how they apply the GRADE domains risk of bias and indirectness to a body of evidence of TA studies. CONCLUSION: Rating the certainty of a body of evidence using GRADE in Cochrane and other reviews and World Health Organization and other guidelines dealing with in TA studies helped refining our approach. The resulting guidance will help applying GRADE successfully for questions and recommendations focusing on tests.

GRADE guidelines: 21 part 2. Test accuracy: inconsistency, imprecision, publication bias, and other domains for rating the certainty of evidence and presenting it in evidence profiles and summary of findings tables.

OBJECTIVES: This article provides updated GRADE guidance about how authors of systematic reviews and health technology assessments and guideline developers can rate the certainty of evidence (also known as quality of the evidence or confidence in the estimates) of a body of evidence addressing test accuracy (TA) on the domains imprecision, inconsistency, publication bias, and other domains. It also provides guidance for how to present synthesized information in evidence profiles and summary of findings tables. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We present guidance for rating certainty in TA in clinical and public health and review the presentation of results of a body of evidence regarding tests. RESULTS: Supplemented by practical examples, we describe how raters of the evidence can apply the GRADE domains inconsistency, imprecision, and publication bias to a body of evidence of TA studies. CONCLUSION: Using GRADE in Cochrane and other reviews as well as World Health Organization and other guidelines helped refining the GRADE approach for rating the certainty of a body of evidence from TA studies. Although several of the GRADE domains (e.g., imprecision and magnitude of the association) require further methodological research to help operationalize them, judgments need to be made on the basis of what is known so far.

Follow-up of an age-period-cohort analysis on alcohol-related mortality trends in Sweden 1970-2015 with predictions to 2025.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies have indicated that birth cohorts are important in explaining trends in alcohol-related mortality. An earlier study from Sweden with data up to 2002 showed that birth cohorts that grew up under periods of more liberal alcohol policies had higher alcohol-related mortality than those cohorts growing up under more restrictive time periods. In spite of increasing alcohol consumption, predictions in 2002 also indicated lower alcohol-related mortality in the future. The aim of this study is to follow-up whether the effects of birth cohorts and the predictions made for Sweden still holds using data up to 2015. METHOD: The study comprised an age-period-cohort analysis and predictions based on population predictions from Statistics Sweden. The analysis was based on all alcohol-related deaths in the Swedish population between 1969 and 2015 for the cohorts born in the decades 1920 through 1990. Data were restricted to people 15-84 years of age. In total, the analysis covered 68,341 deaths and more than 284 million person-years. RESULTS: Male and female cohorts born in the 1940s to 1950s exhibited the highest alcohol-related mortality, while those born in the 1970s continued to have the lowest alcohol-related mortality rates. The predicted mortality rates for males are still anticipated to decrease somewhat through 2025. CONCLUSIONS: The updated age-period-cohort analysis further supports the importance of focusing on restrictive alcohol policies targeting adolescents.

Dental Implant Quality Register-A possible tool to further improve implant treatment and outcome.

The Board of EAO (European Association for Osseointegration) has discussed an initiative to explore the conditions to establish a Dental Implant Register. It was suggested to bring this issue to the EAO Consensus Conference 2018 for a discussion and to possibly propose relevant and manageable parameters. This article presents some select examples from quality registers in the medical field. Based on the experience of established registers, essentially in the medical field, factors considered to be of importance, if and when establishing a Dental Implant Register are introduced and discussed.

Traumatic shaking: The role of the triad in medical investigations of suspected traumatic shaking.

The Swedish Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Assesment of Social Services (SBU) is an independent national authority, tasked by the government with assessing methods used in health, medical and dental services and social service interventions from a broad perspective, covering medical, economic, ethical and social aspects. The language in SBU's reports are adjusted to a wide audience. SBU's Board of Directors has approved the conclusions in this report. The systematic review showed the following graded results: There is limited scientific evidence that the triad (Three components of a whole. The triad associated with SBS usually comprises subdural haematoma, retinal haemorrhages and encephalopathy.) and therefore, its components can be associated with traumatic shaking (low-quality evidence). There is insufficient scientific evidence on which to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in identifying traumatic shaking (very low-quality evidence). Limited scientific evidence (low-quality evidence) represents a combined assessment of studies of high or moderate quality which disclose factors that markedly weaken the evidence. It is important to note that limited scientific evidence for the reliability of a method or an effect does not imply complete lack of scientific support. Insufficient scientific evidence (very low-quality evidence) represents either a lack of studies or situations when available studies are of low quality or show contradictory results. Evaluation of the evidence was not based on formal grading of the evidence according to GRADE but on an evaluation of the total scientific basis.

Insufficient evidence for 'shaken baby syndrome' - a systematic review.

Shaken baby syndrome has typically been associated with findings of subdural haematoma, retinal haemorrhages and encephalopathy, which are referred to as the triad. During the last decade, however, the certainty with which the triad can indicate that an infant has been violently shaken has been increasingly questioned. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in detecting that an infant had been shaken. The literature search was performed using PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library up to October 15, 2015. Relevant publications were assessed for the risk of bias using the QUADAS tool and were classified as having a low, moderate or high risk of bias according to predefined criteria. The reference standards were confessions or witnessed cases of shaking or accidents. The search generated 3773 abstracts, 1064 were assessed as possibly relevant and read as full texts, and 30 studies were ultimately included. Of these, 28 were assessed as having a high risk of bias, which was associated with methodological shortcomings as well as circular reasoning when classifying shaken baby cases and controls. The two studies with a moderate risk of bias used confessions and convictions when classifying shaken baby cases, but their different designs made a meta-analysis impossible. None of the studies had a low risk of bias. CONCLUSION: The systematic review indicates that there is insufficient scientific evidence on which to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the triad in identifying traumatic shaking (very low-quality evidence). It was also demonstrated that there is limited scientific evidence that the triad and therefore its components can be associated with traumatic shaking (low-quality evidence).